The French in Egypt do not want to relive a electoral September 11th

Sunday April 22, before midnight, an earthquake struck France ... An earthquake that has not demolished the houses, or cause loss of human life, but has undermined the political and democratic life in the country: The leader of the far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen is qualified for the second round of the presidential ... A kind og electoral September 11th.

The French are living a nightmare that will work them until Sunday, May 5 ... Decision's Day... Will they block the way to the far-right or they will continue their electoral indifference?

This requires analyzing the event, how and why. Especially since the earthquake would have profound effects not only in France but also in Europe and the world.

To begin with, the idea that the attitude of candidates to the question of the Middle East had an effect on the vote of French has to be rejected for two reasons : First, voters in Western democracy are more interested in domestic problems, like unemployment, taxes and security. Secondly, the possibility that there are exceptions to the rule : Some French Jews and Arab voted for Le Pen.

But this does not mean that international problems have no effect ... However, their impact is just secondary. It is, therefore, an asset which will decide if two candidates are equal at interior problems.

Another important point is the mode of voting, which dominates the elections in different countries or what may be called "political waves" : In 1994, the world witnessed the fall of the great political symbols that had prevailed since the end of the 2nd World War, such as in India, Japan and Italy. In 1997, the Left has taken over political life in Europe, especially Britain and France.

But since 2000, far-right has gained ground in Austria, Denmark, Netherlands, Italy and now in France ... Is this a new political mode?

Barbara Treutenaere, a French studying Arabic in Cairo, do not think that this idea can be generalizes, especially since the delay is short and the three periods are different. For her, the rise of the far-right is due to the fear of the "other". Victor Dixmier, head of the French Journalism branch in Cairo University, agrees with her and says : "This rise of the far-right shows that some Europeans reject the model proposed by the European Union (EU) to move from nationalisme to European regionalism".

The emergence of the far-right may also be explained by the absence of strong ideologies ... In France, voter can pass quickly from left to right and vice-versa ... So there is no logic.

Sonia Hasni, Trainee at the French Center for Culture and Cooperation, said that the rise of the far-right represents a return to nationalism, while Gaëlle Rivière, student of Political Sciences in France, sees that it is the beginning of a new political cycle.

The obvious question to ask now is : Why the French are shocked when the daily newspaper "Le Monde" revealed two days before the 1st round of elections, the possibility, according to surveys, of a duel Chirac-Le Pen and not Chirac-Jospin?

Gael Quedet, a Frenchman who studied Arabic in Cairo, said he was surprised by the rise of the far-right, despite the warning of the polls, because nobody believed in the success of Le Pen.

For her part, Barbara Treutenaere, said that the emergence of the far-right is due to thecrisis of the moderated in France. "The voters are disappointed that the problems they face were not solved, then they are plotted on the extremes". But Sonia Hasni said that the problem is that the French had thought that in 1998 the Front National (FN) was dead after the departure of several 'Tenors"of the party.

Victor Dixmier states that the polls had shed light on the possibility Le Pen's victory in the 1st round ... He had 14% of votes in the polls ... In same time voting for Le Pen is still shameful and alot of people never admit that they will vote for him.

But why Le Pen was able to go to 2nd round though his program has not changed in 20 years? This is due to several reasons: First, the other candidates have talked about security and unemployment issues, preferred issues for Le Pen. They played on his land, which can be called "lepenisation of the mind". This prompted voters to elect the original and not the copy.

Also, Le Pen has organized an excellent media campain where he has played the martyr, saying that the ruling parties tried to avert him He made a "no fault" during the electoral campaign. The victory of Le Pen is also due to the disappointment of voters against moderate politicians.

The low percentage of voting has also played an important role in the Le Pen's victory. The absence of some 30% of French people has pushed up the percentage of votes for the far-right.

But is it possible that Le Pen comes to power? All indications say no ... The French went to streets minutes after the announcement of the 1st round to protest the rejection of Le Pen's victory, which means that voters who did not participate in the 1st round will go to the 2nd after having felt their error.

At the same time, the Left has announced that he will vote for Chirac. Then the 2nd round will see the majority of the French vote for their "hostility" to Le Pen rather than for their "appreciation" to Chirac.

But what will be the future of France of Le Pen arrives to the Elysee? Barbara Treutenaere, originally from the Reunion, and Sonia Hasni, who has tunisian roots, said that according to the program of Le Pen, they will no longer be French. While Victor Dixmier and Gael Quedet indicate that several French will refuse to live under an extremist regime in the country that created the human rights. Gaëlle Rivière went further by saying that "with Le Pen President, the French have to burn their passports".

"Le Pen in power" will certainly lead to a pest move that can go to the revolution or even civil war ... only the 2nd round of Sunday 5 May will decide.