Analysts and military strategists lose their breath following the developments of operations "on the ground" in Iraq and elsewhere, not to mention the probaganda going in parallel conducted by the USA and Britain against Iraq.
On the other side, Baghdad is "barding" a strong resistance to the attacks of the most sophisticated armada of the planet. In this "huge" disparity of force, some Western analysts stop in front of "simple" events that attract analysts "pro" or "anti" war. Apart from the positions of countries, the balance of international, regional and individual interests; apart from the strategic dimension perceived by supporters or opponents, the war may turn on scenarios not without danger, since each pave the way to "Terror" options.
Several analysts stopped by the evolution of the war on March 23rd (Day 4): "Incident of Sunday," which risks becoming a "scenario of tap dance", that shook the Americans and their British, especially with heavy loss of 10 dead and 5 prisoners of war among the American forces.
On that Sunday, a convoy of Marines advance, joyful, in the Iraqi territories, from the Kuwaiti border, to Baghdad stated "goal" of the war. Getting near to the Euphrates and close to Nassiriyah, an iraqi car approached the convoy with the white flag hoisted as a sign of resignation ... The Marines take it lightly and went to receive "the flowers" promised by Washington and its intelligence services!
To their amazement, the traditional trick was their appointment ...firing guns and missile launchers come from the car Iraq like a rain...Result, more than 10 dead and 50 wounded Marines and the destruction of their vehicle. According to American TV channel ABC, this operation is the first appearance of "Fedayeen Saddam" militias, in civilian clothes, on the scene of military operations in Iraq. The ABC wondered about this operation and wondered if it does not open the door to other similar ones, while the fighting approaching to cities, especially Baghdad, where stationed the "elite" forces of Iraq: Those of the Republican Guard ...
The answer comes quickly...a martyr operation falls on Day 10 of war (March 29th) when an Iraqi officer bombed a trapped car close to Najaf, killing 4 American soldiers. Far from the regular Iraqi military forces stationed in major cities like Baghdad, Basra, Mosul and Kirkuk, a large number of paramilitary militias are present, including the "Fedayeen Saddam", created in 1995 by Oudai, eldest son of President Saddam.
According to Anthony Cordsman, a specialist at American International Centre for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS), "Fedayeen Saddam" include 30 to 40 thousands elements. For Mr. Cordsman, several times called to work for U.S. intelligence, the national security and the Pentagon, "Fedayeen Saddam" include the special unit of "execution squad" responsible of the task of eradicating the Iraqi opposition. The "Lions of Saddam", is another group of Iraqis from 10 to 16 years old, and "Brigades of al-Quds", which has around 7 million Iraqis volunteers. But Cordsman confirms that this number, even decreased, to one million, is still an exaggeration.
The U.S. specialist claims that the Iraqi regime wanted to bring to these militias, distributed on major Iraqi cities, developed weapons in prevention of any attack against these cities. And Mr. Cordsman adds that the Iraqi regime was also keen to civilian clothes of "Fedayeen Saddam" to strengthen the spirit of resistance at armed Iraqis to confront the Anglo-American forces in their attempt to invade Iraqi cities , Especially Baghdad. In statements to ABC TV channel, American military officials have indicated that "the group who did the operation on Sunday was sent by Baghdad two weeks before the date of this operation in order to defend Nassiriyah against any attack".
According to the same sources, the trap prepared against the Marines was Prior to strengthen the regular forces in the south. These sources doubt the loyalty of these forces to Saddam's regime. At a press conference held in Qatar, the commander in chief of the Anglo-American forces, Tommy Franks, has admitted that American troops avoided, in purpose, the Iraqi army but the "Fedayeen" were entered into an "operation" with the rear column of American vehicles which were on their way to northern Iraq. "We know that the Fedayeen naturally take a position to curb our manoeuvres and create difficulties in remote regions", said the commander Franks. Despite the statment of the American Commander, ABS channel has raised the doubts of some experts that the "operation on Sunday" has been the work of "Saddam Fedayeen".
Ibrahim al Maarachy, a researcher at the centre of studies on disarmament in California, said that the "Fedayeen Saddam" have been used in domestic transactions and had not received military training. "I do not think they are capable of conducting an operation of its kind..They are just killing...the operation shows that the authors were professional as the case of elite forces, known by their cruelty and their high competence", he said. Mr. al-Maraachy had erupted, in a recent research, the scandal of the British report in which Tony Blair's governemnt had "drawn" old information and published it as if it's coming from intelligence services.
Mr. al-Maraachy stresses that the "Fedayeen Saddam" are paramilitary militias that grouping a large number of youth coming from the tribe "Abu Nasser" and Sunni tribes neighbouring "Takrit", homeland of Saddam Hussein. He believes that the "Fedayeen Saddam" are 18 to 40 thousands young iraqis "skillfully" selected by Oudai Saddam, unlike the "popular army" formed of volunteers of any age and ability. Meanwhile, the analyst Tobi Dodge, from the Universite de Worweck, thinks that the "Fedayeen" are operating in urban areas, especially if the Anglo-American forces access to major cities like Baghdad and Basra. According to Mr. Dodge, these militias will not currently go "in action". "They will be the last groups that Saddam would launch at the field of battle to receive the Marines in Baghdad", he said.
The channel ABS highlights that the "Fedayeen Saddam", normally held in black, drew in 2000, the attention of the international community and associations of Human Rights by their involvement in Iraqi women executions in the streets of Baghdad. According to the ABS, decapitated heads, were suspended in front of the porches in the years 2000-2001 by militias in operations described at that by "eradication of prostitutes". Far from the allegations concerning the "Fedayeen Saddam ", these militias are a nightmare scenario of provision for bloody fighting against the Anglo-American forces that are advancing towards Baghdad.
The second "Terror" scenario about battles in Iraq was shot in the north...Observers fear that the Kurdish militia, the Peshmerga, are part of the equation of war...The number of Peshmerga members, who are fierce fighters, is estimated at 100 thousands, according to Kurdish sources.
The Peshmerga have appeared on stage when the USA had used them as atout to open the northern front in order to achieve several objectives, including rapid access to oil fields of Kirkuk and Mosul, the richest iraqi regions of brut. Adding the evolution of battles that has pushed the Americans to accelerate the plans to alleviate the burden of Anglo-American forces in southern Iraq because of fierce Iraqi resistance in several cities and the opportunity to lay siege to Baghdad from several axes.
Turkey began the American plans by refusing the deployment of 62 thousand American soldiers in northern Iraq, for fear that such a measure reinforces the Kurdish Iraqis who can get the control of the regions rich in petroleum and strengthen the idea of independence and a declaration of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq.
The risk Peshmerga is behind the desire for Ankara to send troops into the region despite U.S. opposition. Similarly, the news about an American parachute in northern Iraq and the presence of nearly 1000 soldiers of the U.S. special forces are redoubling Ankara's fears. These reflect a new Kurdish-American cooperation for military training and arming the Peshmerga in order to defend the north in case of an Iraqi attack. Observers believe that the Peshmerga, who know the Irqi topography, may overtake the U.S. forces, such was the case with the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.
But, it is an "added" front for the Iraqi forces, as the Peshmerga are accustomed to fighting in a difficult climate, and can therefore facilitate the mission of Marines and specially American commandos. The Peshmerga participation opens the door to several contingencies. the most optimistic, according to neutral observers, is a serial of bloodshed and battles between Iraqi factions in the risk of prolonging the war, thus going against the tide in with the wishes of Washington which seeks to shorten it to reduce losses, reduce the economic impact and avoid the pressure of international and American public opinion.
The worst contingencies will be "the involvement of Ankara in a war between Kurdish factions in southern Turkey and northern Iraq" in a "serious" gamble that risks of widening the circle of war and affect the Americans in their attempt to stay away from side battles who are not part of their calculations.
The third scenario, recently promoted by several military experts in Italy, is that the Pentagon, with the fear of "falling into a new Vietnam swamp", would use the option of nuclear bomb to put an end to the war. Observers tremble before such a possibility, especially with the war that extends beyond any estimation made by Americans.
A Russian military expert goes further in its pessimism...He thinks that Washington can "pretend" a presence of weapons of mass destruction (chemical or biological weapons) in Iraq to justify to the international and american public opinion such a nuclear strike. This option is the head of "Terror" triangle scenarios of the war which nobody can estimate the end.