As Venezuela threated, once more, to deprive the USA of venezuelan oil in response to its conflict with the U.S.oil group "Exxon Mobil", experts exclude the idea that Caracas apply this procedure. It would, in their view, have negative effects on Venezuela itself.
According to "France 24", Elio Oheb, editor of the American magazine "World Petroleum" said that the USA is the leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, with 3,2 million barrels per day, but this amount represents only 10% of U.S. oil imports.
Oheb explains that the USA had already faced the cessation of Venezuelan oil exports during the big strike against the regime of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in December 2002, a strike that has paralyzed the oil sector in Venezuela until January 2003 .
And Oheb adds that at this time, Mexico and Canada, were able to cover the lack of Venezuelan crude, a role that the two countries can always play if Chavez carries out his threats. He points out that in case that Venezuela stops its oil exports, U.S. authorities will increase their purchases of petroleum from the Middle East.
Other economic analysts say that if the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez implements these threats, his regime will be the "first victim". They told Radio France International that if the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush is really determined to overthrow Chavez from power, it could intentionally announce the boycott of Venezuelan oil.
Analysts see that such a procedure would have a lesser effect on the U.S. economy. "But it will destroy the Venezuelan economy…the quality of Venezuelan oil (heavy oil), requires special refineries which are in the USA", they said.
For its part, "Standard and Poor's" believes that the threat of Venezuela is not appliquable because U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil accounted for half the income of the national oil company "Petrolios of Venezuela".
Experts say that 25% of Venezuela's GDP comes from oil sector, while taxes paid by "Petrolios of Venezuela" represent 50% of the state budget.
According to the Bank "JB Morgan Securities", it's impossible that the two countries stop their oil trade. "The attitude of the Venezuelan government will just create a psychological factor to push crude oil prices to rise in the short term.
So far, the reaction of the Venezuelan government has stopped at the level of the suspension of trade relations with "Exxon Mobil", the biggest oil group in the world, accused by Caracas to play the "economic and legal skirmishes."
"Exxon Mobil" has run to all the legal means to obtain compensation from Caracas, after that Venezuela had begun, in early May, the nationalization of deposits in the Orinoco basin.
Venezuela wants to acquire at least 60% of the shares of companies that invest in deposits in this region, a procedure that "Exxon Mobil" has refused. The American company has filed a request in September to international arbitration for the damage it had suffered after its withdrawal from the Orinoco. In this context, the group requested the support of many courts in the world, including New York court.
The preventive procedures taken by "Exxon Mobil" in British and Dutch courts aim to freeze assets of 12 billion dollars belonging to" Petroleos de Venezuela, "while the Venezuelan government says that" Exxon Mobil "overestimates the value of its investments in Venezuela.