The world is at the threshold of a new cold war?

Eighteen years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war between Moscow and Washington, which reached its peak during the crisis of the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, a conflict just started between Russia, heir of the former Soviet Union, and Georgia, which had its independence after the collapse of the Union.

This conflict, erupted on August 6, due to the Georgians separatist territories "South Ossetia" and "Abkhazia", and the current tension, which reign in the Caucasus region, are fuelling fears of triggering a new Cold War between Russia and the West.

Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet regime, has lost its role as a second superpower in the world. Its weak economy has affected its military capabilities. But after the resignation of the first President Boris Yeltsin in late 1999 and the accession to power by Vladimir Putin, Moscow began to rebuild its Military and economic capacities. Moscow has promulgated many laws to stimulate investments, developed its military system and resupply its troops by sophisticated weapons, by taking advantage of the unprecedented rise in prices of oil and gas, which it has enormous reserves.

At the same time, the Kremlin began to look for the role that Russia can play in resolving thorny issues on the international scene. Moscow has also tried to achieve a rapprochement with the strategic regions in the world.

In this context, Russia has asked to join the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) as an observer. This request is considered as the first indication of the return of the cold war between Moscow and Washington. During the eight years he spent in the Kremlin, Putin was able to build bridges of understanding with the Islamic world and eliminate the suspended sediment between the two parties since the Soviet era, prompting the USA, which failed the presence of OIC for 39 years, to send for the first time, an envoy to the Islamic organization in an attempt to play the card of the "Islamic world" against Moscow. A plan which has proved effective at the time of the Soviet Communist and "atheist" regime.

But the Indian news agency "Orient Press sees, in a report, that the U.S. move was quite late. The press agency says that Putin, by his way of managing the crisis in Chechnya, was able to remove the embarrasment that hindered Moscow in its relations with the islamic world.

The agency added that the individual policy applied by Putin to ensure the failure of any attempt to cut between Russia and the Islamic world, led to his success in managing the political game.

Moscow did not stop at this success. During the last OIC summit held in Dakar, Russia has completed totally winning. In his speech to the summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, has focused on the situation of Muslims in the West and on attempts by some Western politicians to focus on the threat of Islamic fundamentalism and to create "the Islamophobia". At the same time, Lavrov said that his country welcomes the various religions, especially Islam.

But, another factor has helped Russia to realize this success, namely: The image of the USA in several countries in the Islamic world and the Middle East. In most of these countries, Washington is seen as if it acts in accordance with the agenda of Israelis. Especially after the failure of the peace conference in Annapolis, between Israel and the Palestinians. At the same time, Moscow opposes the construction of Jewish settlements in occupied Palestine and calls for lifting the blockade imposed on Palestinian cities and a halt to military operations against the Palestinians. In addition, Russia has not boycotted Hamas, which represents a significant portion of Palestinians and Lavrov did not hesitate to meet with Khaled Mashaal, head of the Movement's political bureau, in Damascus.

The crisis of the independence of Kosovo, province of Serbia ally of Russia, is the second index return of the cold war.

After the outbreak of war in Kosovo from 1996 to 1999 between Serb forces and Albanian militias, United Nations forces entered the region to maintain security, but the Albanians, who make up the majority of inhabitants of Kosovo, helped by Western countries, have declared independence from Serbia and established their own State on 17th of 2008.

Several Western countries, led by the USA, France and Britain, have recognized the independence of Kosovo, which has angered Moscow, which does not recognise the independence of the province.

The Russian Foreign Minister spoke about this topic in his speech to the OIC. He said that the lack of recognition of Kosovo independence by several countries, including Islamic countries, had an important meaning. He discussed the strong relationship between Moscow and Islamic countries. These words were a painful blow to Washington in the context of the war of statements between Moscow and Washington.

Washington's plan for the deployment of U.S. antimissil defence shield in Europe under the pretext of protecting the region from any Iranian missil attack, and the attempts of USA to expand the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO) to the west borders Russia, were like throwing oil on the fire.

Moscow has regarded the deployment of U.S. missil shield in countries like the Czech Republic and Poland, which turned, in the past, in the orbit of the former Soviet Union, and attempts to annex Georgia and Ukrania to NATO, as a direct threat to its national security and promised to respond harshly.

The Russian response was quick. It took the form of deployment of destroyers and aircraft carrier for few days in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

However, after the signing by Washington of an agreement with the Czech Republic on the deployment of antimissil defence shield and with the approach of signing a similar agreement with Poland, the Russian media have talked about the possibility of deploying russian Strategic bombers in Cuba, Venezuela and Algeria. Quoting a senior official, the Russian daily "Izvestia" spoke last July of a possible return of Russian strategic bombers such as "TU-160" and "TU-95 MS" in Cuba in response to the deployment of elements of the American system of antimissil defence in Europe.

This information reminds of periods of the cold war between the two superpowers (America and the Soviet Union), and put alot of question marks about a possible war between the USA, the first world power, and Russia inherited the Soviet Union.

But the Russian leaders have denied these reports in their entirety. According to the head of the department of press and media in the Russian Ministry of Defense, Chat Baitchuren, these information are only rumors launched by some States that deploy Military bases and installations around Russia.

Baitchuren added that Russia, peace-loving, does not install military bases within the borders of other countries. At the same time, a Russian high-level military source told the news agency "Novosti" that Russia has not recently sent strategic bombers to Cuba or to another country of Latin America.

In addition, some russian militaries believe that Russia will not use suach a plan. The former Chief of Staff of the Russian startegiques missils forces, General Victor Jessen, said that Russia will not have any profit from the deployment of Russian strategic and long-range bombers in Cuba.

Jessen, currently Vice President of the Russian Academy of security and defence issues and the legal system, said that the advantage of these bombers is the ability to launch missiles without having to enter into the area covered by the enemy's air defences. "These bombers can get their goal from 4 000 kilometres away, thus avoiding the need for deployment of strategic bombers at 90 km from the border of the USA, where they are an easy target", he said.

While Russian officials have downplayed the importance of this information, or rumors, the latter have raised questions on measures that Moscow should take in response to U.S. antimissil defence shield. General Victor Jessen believes that Russia could implement a program to manufacture ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S. Territories via the South Pole in order to circumvent the antimissile defence system. He said that the Soviet Union abandoned the manufacture of these missiles under the treaty on strategic arms reduction "START-1".

He explained that Moscow could also refuel these missiles with warheads capable of maneuver, side-by-side with the deployment of "Iskandar" missiles system and the establishment of a base for the strategic bombers in Kaliningerad.

For his part, General Vladimir Dforquen, former director of the Central Institute for Scientific Research IV at the Russian Ministry of Defense, said that the interceptor missiles that Washington wants to deploy in Poland would not carry nuclear munitions.

Dforquen, who chaired the Institute specializes in the design of rockets and space systems, added that these missiles do not represent a strategic threat to Moscow because their scope is not more than 1500 kilometres. He also pointed out that Washington plan to have 54 missiles of this type in 2015, of which 44 missiles will be deployed in USA and 10 in Europe.

Also, Dforquen added that the third region of the American system of antimissile defence (Poland) is not dangerous for Russia. He said that Moscow has an effective system to overcome the foreign systems of antimissile defence.

But the decision of Georgia to send its troops to regain control of South Ossetia, which has pushed Moscow to deploy its forces in the region to support the separatists, confirmed the fears of outbreak of the Cold War between Russia and the West.

The Russian forces were not satisfied to expel Georgian troops of the separatist provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but they entered to the territories of Georgia, with whom relations are strained since the arrival of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to power in 2004 and its encouragement of rapprochement between Tbilisi and the West.

The major event which has devoted fears of outbreak of the cold war was the decision made Tuesday by Moscow to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Considered as a response, the decision comes six months after the recognition by the Western countries, including USA, France and Britain, of the independence of Kosovo.

Despite statements by the German minister of Defense Joseph Frans Yong, which excludes the idea of a new Cold War between the West and Russia due to the current conflict between Moscow and Tbilisi, and his call for the resumption of dialogue between the two parties to ensure the restoration of security and stability in the region, the french minister of Foreign Affairs Bernard Kouchner, in statements made to newspaper "Le Figaro", said that he is afraid of a new cold war that the Western world does not want.

Despite his fears, Kouchner himself has raised the tone of his statements against Russia since yesterday when he said that "Russia is a state outside international law". He added that the EU can not accept all violations committed by Moscow against international law, agreements for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the United Nations resolutions.

Kouchner also condemned in statements to radio "Europe 1", the fact that Russia has entered the territory of a neighbouring country using the army, which happens for the first time in many years. He expressed his concern that Russia, having invaded Georgia, would aim Ukraine and Moldova, two countries pro-West.

It's known that "Crimea", in south of Ukraine, was considered as Russian territory until former Soviet leader Nikita Krotchev had ceded it to Kiev in 1954.

Thursday, Kouchner warned, in a press conference in Paris, from the possibility of imposing sanctions on Russia because of the crisis with Georgia. He indicated that other options will be discussed at the extraordinary EU summit to be held in Brussels on 1st of September. However, Kouchner said that France is not for the severance of diplomatic relations with Moscow.

Later in the day, Kouchner came back and confirmed in a statement released by the french ministry of Foreign Affairs, that the extraordinary EU summit would not view French proposals to impose sanctions on Russia because of the crisis. He emphasized that France, in his quality as president of the European Union, must act to achieve a common position among all members of the Union.

On the other side of the Atlantic, U.S. President George W. Bush has condemned the recognition by Russia of the independence of the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, highlighting that Moscow should reconsider the decision "irresponsible".

For its part, the Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Barak Obama, deplored the Russian decision. He called on all countries in the world to refrain from giving legitimacy to this process. He called the Russian government the need to "respect" the territorial integrity of Georgia. At the same time, Obama said that he did not want a new cold war with Russia, with which the USA have many common interests.

All these reactions occur when the Russian president said in statements broadcast by the television channel "Russia Today" that Moscow does not fear reprisal, including the "cold war".

In an article in the "Financial Times", Medvedev said that "the Russian decision to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was based on international law". He added that recognition of independence took into account the will of the peoples of both regions and the Charter of the United Nations. Medvedev explained that this decision was not taken lightly or without full study of its consequences. "This region was like a bomb which Russian forces for peacekeeping have tried not to explode".

Medvedev also pointed out that in international relations can not have one rule for some countries and another rules for others, in reference to recognition by the West for the independence of Kosovo.

In this context, Medvedev enjoys strong support from his citizens to the point where the opposition leader, Viktor Yanukovych has asked his government to support the free will of South-Ossetien and Abkhazian peoples to have their independence, saying that this measure is a logical continuation of the line taken by the West when he recognized the independence of the Kosovo province of Serbia.

For their part, parliamentarians in Belarus, allies of Moscow, considered legitimate and justified the russian reaction, especially after the way in which the West has dealt with the subject of Kosovo. Members of the International Relations Committee in Belarusian parliament called on their governments to follow the approach taken by Moscow in recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

For their part, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have expressed their willingness to conclude agreements on military cooperation with Moscow, including the establishment of Russian Military bases on their territories.

Analysts estimate that the last Russian military approach was not just a campaign to expel Georgian troops from the territories of South Ossetia, but an opportunity exploited by Moscow to deliver a message to the West that the previous weakness of Russia, no longer exists.

Observers fear that recent developments, especially the reactions of Belarus and the separatist republics, is the consecration of the return of the concept of alliances and the polarization that marked the beginning of the Cold War.

They feel that if the agreements on military cooperation between Moscow on one hand and South Ossetia and Abkhazia on the other, will lead to legitimize the deployment of missiles and thousands of Russian soldiers at the NATO borders in case of accession of Georgia to the West organization.